Today is a big day in the crypto world, as over $14.21 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire. Events like this often create short-term price swings, as traders react to the massive amount of expiring contracts.
Let’s break down what’s happening, why it matters, and what history tells us about similar events.
Why This Options Expiry Is a Big Deal
👉 Bitcoin options expiring today: 139,260 contracts worth $12.075 billion
👉 Ethereum options expiring today: 1,068,519 contracts worth $2.135 billion
Options contracts give traders the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell assets at a set price before expiration. When a large number of options expire at once, it can cause sudden price movements, as traders adjust their positions.
This expiry is much bigger than last week’s, when:
🔹 Only 21,596 BTC options ($1.826 billion) expired
🔹 Only 133,447 ETH options ($264.46 million) expired
The reason for this huge jump in numbers? Today marks the end of March, the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, and a key options expiry day—so both monthly and quarterly options contracts are closing at the same time.
Key Levels to Watch: “Maximum Pain Point”
📍 Bitcoin’s ‘maximum pain’ price: $85,000
📍 Ethereum’s ‘maximum pain’ price: $2,400
The maximum pain point is the price at which the most traders lose money on their expiring options. Since today’s Bitcoin pain point is $85,000, traders will be watching closely to see if BTC stays near that level—or if the market moves in a different direction.
Right now, BTC is trading around $85,960, slightly above that level. But will it stay there? That’s what traders are trying to figure out.
What Past Expiries Tell Us
Large options expiries have often led to volatile price swings. For example:
🔹 December 2023 Expiry: $9 billion in options expired, causing Bitcoin to drop from $44,500 to $41,900 in just a few hours.
🔹 September 2023 Expiry: $4.8 billion in contracts closed, pushing BTC down 3% in a single day.
So, while today’s expiry doesn’t guarantee a big move, past data shows that major expirations can create short-term volatility.
Traders Are Divided: Will Bitcoin Drop or Break Out?
Analysts are watching two possible scenarios:
🔴 Bearish case: Some traders expect a short-term drop to $84,000–$85,000 as BTC faces resistance.
🟢 Bullish case: Others believe BTC could break above $88,400, where there’s been strong selling pressure.
At the same time, some traders think Bitcoin is stuck in a tight trading range and won’t move much unless a major breakout happens.
🔹 Key resistance: $88,400 (previous selling pressure)
🔹 Key support: $77,000 (some analysts call this a “definite bottom”)
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price action is less predictable, as its implied volatility curve is flatter, meaning traders aren’t leaning strongly in either direction.
