Bitcoin has had a wild week, dropping to $77,000 before bouncing back over 10% to reclaim the $85,000 level. Despite this strong recovery, recent market corrections have raised doubts about whether the bull run is still on track.
However, on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock suggests the market may still have room to grow, based on patterns seen in past Bitcoin cycles.
Bitcoin Halving Cycles: What History Tells Us
Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a halving, reducing the number of new coins entering the market. Historically, these events have fueled massive price surges, though with smaller gains each time.
- 2012 Halving: Bitcoin surged between 6,000% – 8,000% before stabilizing.
- 2016 Halving: Gains peaked around 2,000%, settling near 600%.
- 2020 Halving: More modest growth, with a 600% increase.
- 2024 Halving (Current Cycle): So far, Bitcoin has only climbed 60%, meaning there could be more upside left.
Despite the trend of diminishing returns, IntoTheBlock estimates Bitcoin could still increase by 50% – 150% from its post-halving lows.
When Could Bitcoin Hit Its Peak?
Looking at previous halving cycles, Bitcoin typically reaches its market peak 12-18 months after the event. If this pattern holds, the biggest price surge might happen between mid-2025 and late 2025.
However, today’s market is different from past cycles. Factors like increased institutional investment and US government trade policies could influence Bitcoin’s price movement in new ways.
Current Bitcoin Price Update
Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $84,391, reflecting a 1.64% drop over the past week. While short-term movements remain uncertain, history suggests there could still be growth ahead before this cycle is over.
Will Bitcoin hit new highs, or is the best of this bull run already behind us? Time will tell.
