Bitcoin has been on an impressive run over the past week, finally climbing back above the key $100,000 level. This rise has brought back optimism among investors, especially after seeing the price reach as high as $103,800 on May 15 – the highest since January.
But while this is exciting news, some recent data suggests that Bitcoin might be due for a pause – or even a small dip.
Open Interest Isn’t Keeping Up
The crypto analytics firm Alphractal recently shared some data on X (formerly Twitter) showing that the open interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives hasn’t grown as much as you’d expect with this price surge.
Open interest tracks how much money is in Bitcoin’s futures and options markets. When it’s rising, it usually means more traders are joining in, and that can push prices even higher. But right now, Alphractal says open interest is sitting at about $61.3 billion. That’s quite a bit lower than the $68 billion it was the last time Bitcoin was around $103,000.
This suggests that while Bitcoin’s price has moved up, there’s not as much excitement or new money in the derivatives markets. Some traders might have already closed out their positions, or they’re waiting on the sidelines.
Big Whales Might Be Selling
Another thing Alphractal pointed out is the drop in the Whale Position Sentiment metric. This measures what the biggest Bitcoin holders (the “whales”) are doing – whether they’re buying, holding, or selling.
The data shows that some of these big players are starting to close out their long positions, which can sometimes be an early sign that prices could cool off. If this trend continues, Bitcoin might not keep pushing higher right away and could see a small pullback.
What History Tells Us
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a slowdown in Bitcoin’s rally:
✅ In 2021, Bitcoin hit $64,000 in April but then dropped to $30,000 by summer.
✅ In 2019, Bitcoin rose from $3,000 to $14,000 in six months, only to cool off again after big traders took profits.
These pauses don’t always mean the rally is over – sometimes they’re just a breather before the next push higher. But it’s something to watch closely.
Current Status
Right now, Bitcoin is holding steady at about $103,000. That’s still a very strong price, but after such a big move up from $74,000, it’s not surprising to see traders become a bit cautious.
So, while it’s possible Bitcoin could soon test new highs, some analysts think we might see a brief dip or sideways movement first. If you’re thinking about getting in or adding to your position, it might be smart to watch how these whales and open interest metrics move in the days ahead!
