Bitcoin has long been expected to reach the six-figure mark, yet this milestone has remained elusive. However, with predictions of an upcoming crypto bull run, hopes for a $100,000 Bitcoin price have resurfaced. One crypto analyst has gone further, forecasting a $200,000 Bitcoin price based on historical trends.
Bitcoin Power Law and Exponential Decay Theory
Pseudonymous crypto analyst @apsk32 recently highlighted a 13-year trend that has consistently played out for Bitcoin. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the analyst used a combination of a power law equation and exponential decay to predict how high Bitcoin could rise in each cycle, as well as how low it might drop afterward.
The Power Law Cycle Cloud, illustrated by the analyst, shows how Bitcoin’s price has surged and fallen over the last three bull and bear cycles. Using this same pattern, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin could break the six-figure barrier and potentially peak near $200,000. This high is expected in 2025, in line with Bitcoin’s typical four-year bull cycles.
Just as the model predicts the peak, it also anticipates the subsequent bear market. The analyst suggests that in 2026, Bitcoin could drop around 57.5% from its $200,000 high, landing at approximately $85,000.
Acknowledging concerns that Bitcoin might deviate from this trend, the analyst references Michael Saylor’s assertion that “all your models will be broken.” However, he notes that even Saylor’s models ultimately align with the Power Law. While the possibility of deviation exists, the analyst emphasizes the importance of respecting the 13-year trend, stating, “We don’t have to like this, but we need to respect it.”