Bitcoin’s price jumped past $100,000 this week, hitting $104,000 before settling down a bit to around $103,000. This surge came after news broke that officials from the US and China are set to meet in Switzerland to discuss a potential trade deal. That gave the markets a boost and pushed Bitcoin higher. But some experts say there’s more to the story than just this news.
Global Money Supply Hits $111 Trillion
Julien Bittel, a researcher at Global Macro Investor, believes that the amount of money circulating in the world (known as the global M2 money supply) is a strong clue about where Bitcoin’s price is headed. He says there’s usually a 12-week gap between money supply growth and Bitcoin’s price jump.
Bittel shared an updated chart on social media, showing that when the money supply grows, Bitcoin’s price tends to follow a few months later. From early 2023 to early 2024, the world’s money supply (M2) grew from $98 trillion to over $108 trillion. Bitcoin also climbed higher, finally crossing the $100,000 mark. However, in mid-2024, the money supply stopped growing, and Bitcoin fell back below $80,000. Bittel called this a “consolidation phase.”
But now, the global money supply has started growing again—fast! It’s shot past $111 trillion. If this trend keeps going, Bittel thinks Bitcoin could keep rising through mid-2025.
Bittel said: “We’re going higher,” as he pointed to the strong growth in global M2 money.
Different Views: Is Bitcoin Leading or Following?
Not everyone is convinced by Bittel’s theory. Analyst Benjamin Cohen says that Bitcoin doesn’t always move after global money supply changes. He gave examples from past cycles: in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin hit record highs before the money supply peaked.
Cohen thinks it might be the other way around: Bitcoin’s moves could actually come before changes in the global money supply. If that’s true, then Bitcoin’s current price jump could be a warning that money supply growth might slow down soon.
He shared a chart on social media, pointing out that in 2021, global M2 kept growing for months after Bitcoin already topped out.
Past Crashes Still Haunt
Cohen also mentioned what happened in 2022 when Bitcoin crashed below $20,000. That was around the time global M2 was at a low point. But the crash got even worse because of the FTX exchange collapse—a major crypto exchange that went bankrupt, taking billions of dollars with it.
Key Takeaway
Some analysts, like Bittel, believe that Bitcoin will keep rising as the global money supply grows. Others, like Cohen, aren’t so sure and think Bitcoin might be signaling an upcoming slowdown instead. Only time will tell whether Bitcoin will keep soaring—or if a pullback is waiting just around the corner.
