The cryptocurrency market has been all over the place in 2025, with no clear trend. Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, hit an all-time high of $108,786 in January but has since dropped by 24%.
As Bitcoin drifts further from its peak, many are wondering: Where are we in the market cycle? Are we in a cooling-off phase, or is another price surge coming?
Interestingly, blockchain data suggests that experienced Bitcoin investors might be gearing up for another rally.
Are Veteran Bitcoin Holders Expecting a Price Surge?
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently shared insights into Bitcoin’s price cycles on CryptoQuant. He pointed out that seasoned Bitcoin investors—those who have been in the market for years—are quietly building up their BTC holdings again.
According to data, these long-term holders have gone through four major accumulation phases in this market cycle:
- January 2023
- October 2023
- October 2024
- March 2025
At the same time, they’ve also had four big sell-offs, cashing out during market peaks in:
- January 2024
- April 2024
- July 2024
- January 2025
A key metric that tracks their activity is Value Days Destroyed (VDD), which shows when long-term investors move their BTC. Right now, this metric has been steadily declining, which means these investors aren’t selling as much.
Historically, when VDD is low, Bitcoin tends to see major price increases. This pattern has repeated itself several times in the past:
- In late 2020, long-term holders stopped selling, and Bitcoin went on to hit new highs in 2021.
- A similar pattern occurred in 2017, just before BTC skyrocketed to nearly $20,000.
With long-term Bitcoin holders now accumulating instead of selling, this could be a sign that another price rally is coming in the months ahead.
What’s Happening With Bitcoin’s Price Right Now?
As of today, Bitcoin is trading at around $83,200, down by over 2% in the last 24 hours and around 2% for the past week.
While short-term fluctuations are normal, the bigger picture suggests that experienced investors see potential for Bitcoin to climb higher.
Could we be on the verge of another big move? If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may not stay at these levels for long.
